Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Polymarket
33c
Yes price
Kalshi
No live price
Yes price
Cross-venue gap
Not comparable yet
Both venues need a live Yes price to compare.
Summary
Polymarket currently prices Yes at 33 cents. No linked Kalshi market is tracked for this question yet. Over the past 24 hours, one trade of $10,000 or more crossed on Polymarket, with the largest a $16,600 buy of No at 80c.
Whale activity on this market
| Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Notional | Wallet record | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet #25212 | Buy | No | 80c | $16,600 | not yet ranked | 18 hours ago |
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